4th Presidential Election Results

Hey everyone before I get into the fun stuff I'd like to reaffirm a commitment to the bulletin community that TAI has been failing to live up to in recent months. We are one of the few (maybe the only) successful AAs to have our roots here and I'd like to see us connect to those roots a bit more than we have in the past. In keeping with that spirit it is my great honor to present to you, the community, the 4th Presidential Election Results as well our traditional Optional Polling Results which has the much awaited for presidential approval ratings: 

*Note: I will be offering my unbiased analysis however it is worth noting that my bias as the current president and head of one of the two major parties is likely impossible to overcome though I try my best to moderate any views I may have

**Note: 1 vote was sent in over messages and is therefore not recorded on the google forms. Readers must remember that there are 21 responses on required questions not 20. This voter wasn't given any optional poll questions.

***Note: the ↑ sign indicates growth since the last known poll and the ↓ indicates the opposite

Party Registration within TAI:

FoJ- 7 ↓

NLP-5 ↓

Unaffiliated/Independents- 9 ↑

This poll result is potentially one of the more significant we'll see on this bulletin. For those who don't know TAI has recently adopted a two-party system lead by the two major parties, the Front of Justice (FoJ) and the National Liberty Party. The FoJ's recent creation as an opposition party to the priorly ruling NLP has seen the advancement of political discussion of TAI. This advancement is clearly seen in the polls here. With over 50% of voters claiming membership and political activity within a party the engagement within politics can surely be said to have gone up significantly compared to previous polls. The FoJ does have a small 2 person lead here which does frankly express the political nature of TAI with a nearly 55/45 split in substantive political power within government between the two parties. With senate elections just around the bend this does point to good signs for the FoJ, however, because of the recent presidency win for the FoJ it is likely that the NLP will attempt to spend more resources in an attempt to definitively take the senate. It would be a crucial piece in ensuring a full majority is not created by the FoJ. 

Presidential Vote:

RoManic of Vulcanities (FoJ): 18 (remember there was an extra vote via non-google forms methods)

SPADE (NLP): 1

South Germany (Independent): 1

Blank (Symbolic No Vote): 1

There you have it RoManic will be able to retain his post as President, which he previously gained as VP after Former President Melix stepped down, as an officially elected one. This was a large unity vote for the President as he was able to sway NLP voters to join his side and unite under one candidate. It is worth noting that SPADE, South Germany, and the "Blank Vote" were all write ins and did not appear formally on the ballot. While SPADE did receive the NLP nomination late last month, he denied a campaign and instead choose to become RoManics VP. He did not officially renounce his NLP candidacy which is why he still shows up as an NLP candidate. Despite the new political two-party state environment this shows a good amount of hope should be in store for this presidency if AA wide voters are still able to approve of a partisan candidate. This may, however, very well be the last uncontested election in the AAs history as the large demographic of unaligned voters continues to rapidly change despite a negative trendline for political parties. 

The Discord Question:

Yes: 17 ↑

No: 3 ↓

Overall, this question has answered what a lot of people mostly know. The number of members without discord within the AA is declining. It is certainly not an extreme decline as the last poll from 4 months ago had 4 non-discord members answering the poll. However, it does show that this population has quickly solidified as a minority group within TAI. There have been calls recently for more benefits for non-discord members with a budding non-discord rights movement of sorts. TAI still has a law, that nearly everyone holds no issues with, banning non-discord members from government posts. To circumvent this many parties have courted non-discord members as valuable campaigners and members of their political parties' grassroots efforts. 

Opinions of the "Growth Circle":

Average: 8.1

This is a new question that was recently added to the optional poll to gauge members thoughts on the new growth circle. The AA wide growth circle, which has been in effect for around a month and a half, is a project designed to get all members of the AA up to C21. To do this, taxes have been increased to 90/90. The expectation from many speculators was that opinions of the circle would be much lower however it appears that the beneficiaries of this program, of which there are many, stepped in and raised the average significantly to a positive number. This is a clear sign to the government to continue with the growth circle until the job is done. An average of 8.1 is well above the original estimate of 6.5. 

Opinions on Partisanship:

Average: ~7.5

This is also a new question to the optional poll. It asked members what their thoughts on the new two-party state environment was essentially. While the average isn't overly astounding it does show a good amount of interest ranging in that 7-8 area for politics. While there are some outliers the general makeup of this response was all upper middle tier feelings on partisanship. This is to be expected as the political culture within TAI is only just beginning in earnest. This number is expected to increase by next election. 

How Satisfied are you with Aeq Leadership: 

Average: ~8.2 ↑

This questions response saw nearly a two point jump higher from prior polling. This is in large part to the strides TAI has made in developing home-grown leaders. Obviously, leadership within a completely new and connectionless AA like we once were almost 1 and a half years ago was hard to come by but through a concerted effort, we've developed the members we've had to become the leaders we needed. Most of our leadership team has spent a majority of their time in PnW here in TAI and are not products of mergers. It is my personal prediction that this number is only going to grow with time. 

How Satisfied are you with the Community:

Average: ~8.0 ↑

This question saw a 0.1 increase since the last poll four months ago. TAI has always been well equipped in its community aspects as that was the original purpose of this AA and is still a fundamental value today. While the increase definitely isn't what government officials would have likely wanted it is an increase, in a notoriously hard to increase category within TAI I might add, nonetheless. My personal prediction is that the increase rate stays relatively the same we may see this number hit anywhere from 8.2-8.5 within the next poll. 

The BIG one: Presidential Approval Rating: 

*It is important to note that the rating is taken by using the mean of these numbers which has led to a skewed and historically higher approval rating amongst all presidents

Approval Rating: ~82.4%

Comparison to Historical Terms:

Luna Admin (1st Term, 06/03/2023): ~81.4%

Luna Admin (1st Term, 08/12/2023): ~90.5%

Marky Admin: No Data Available (historical estimates can reasonably place Markys approval to 85-88%, for context there was never a ballot during the time Marky was president which is why there is no polling data available for his presidency)

Luna Admin (2nd Term, 12/18/2023): ~68.6%

My analysis of my own approval rating will attempt a non-biased stats-based view here. 

With a rating of 82.4% RoManic would place 2nd (3rd if counting Marky's theoretical estimates) among all polls. Nyx's peak approval rating of 90.5% is likely a barrier that will never be broken. For a relatively new president (still within first month) this approval rating is not terrible. There is certainly room for improvement but from a historical perspective this rating is not that bad. A variety of factors likely played into the raising/lowering of the approval rating:

Increase in partisan politics

Increase in commitment and loyalty to a party

Growth Circle with high taxes (90/90)

Middling Growth thanks to the notorious top 50 speedbump

Small-scale contention for the Presidency from the opposition

Now, these are likely only a few of the reasons for the approval rating. Based on my estimates this approval rating could peak towards 85%-87%. So essentially Marky era levels if the estimate is to be believed. There is also a good chance that the senate elections will end up swaying the position of the president. If the FoJ wins a majority the FoJ will control both critical branches likely forcing the NLP into the judiciary. If this critical win for the Presidency does happen it can be assumed that the approval rating will likely go up. Given an NLP controlled Senate we could be in for an interesting ride in the approval ratings and statistics area in general. Frankly, I'm just as curious as everyone else. 
 

Leave a Comment down below talking about your predictions in TAI politics. I want to hear your hot takes, your odd takes, and your crazy guesses. Those who participate will be entered into a random lottery for: 

20 Million Dollars!

You don't need to be an Aeq member to win, however, TAI members will receive an extra 5 million dollars if they win the fully random lottery draw. 

That's all from us, have a good one!