page (2/4)
200. Projected Effects on Gavastek
201. Economy
201.1. Losses (Fiscal): The Gavastekan economy is expected to lose approximately Ꞧ13 billion of Gavastek’s Ꞧ34 billion global trade surpluses. More product, resources, and goods are still to be exported than imported, but this number is expected to dwindle as a result of Gavastekan embargoes and sanctions against the U.S., and expected similar methods of retaliation.
201.2. Alternative Supplementation: In order to combat the effects of economic losses caused by sanctions and embargoes to and from The United States of America, The Socialist Republic of Gavastek is to begin research, and other observing methods, to find economic alternatives to trade with the United States. Such observers are recommended to look for alternatives that match our moral and economic systems, so as to prevent further complications caused by other like-minded situation.
201.3. Market Stabilisation: Markets are expected to react heavily to the announcement of a U.S. censure. As such, the Ministry of Economics shall be informed, then requested to enforce such measures as they see fit to balance the Gavastekan economy. A temporary joint operations task unit shall be assigned to assist and provide oversight alongside the Ministry of Economics to create a best outcome for the economy. Recommended additions to the joint operations task unit include, but are not limited to: The Ministry of the Treasury, The Ministry of Economics, The National Revenue Bureau (NRB), and The Brokerage, Trade, and Standards Commission (BTSC)5.
202. Public Sentiment
202.1. Views on U.S.: According to the National Institute for the Research of Political and Economic Data (NIRPED)6, Gavastekan public sentiment of the U.S. is extremely low, especially in support of the country’s stances, politically, economically (policy-wise), and morally. NIRPED has established that there would be little to no public dissent or protest as to the actions and updates to U.S.-Gavastekan policy.
202.2. Faith and Approval in Government: According to NIRPED, faith and approval in the government is recorded to be approximately 87,563295%, with citizens believing the government is meeting its duties, requirements, and responsibilities instilled upon them by the Gavastekan Constitution. The expected decrease in government faith/approval is expected to fall no more than 0,21325%, lowering the estimated approval rating to 87,350045%.
203. World Diplomatic Relations
203.1. World’s Views on Actions: Global markets, financial institutions, media, and organisations, are expected to vary, and not be accurately predicted at the current time.
203.2. Other Countries’ Responses: Global governments are expected to react along their alliance affiliations, following further explained reactions.
203.3. U.S.-Ally Imposed Sanctions: Strong to semi-strong allies of The United States of America are expected to either: 1) of their own will, project economic sanctions, or 2) be pressured by The U.S., or strong U.S. allies, into enforcing economic sanctions. U.S. Enemies, or Gavastekan allies, are expected to stand by Gavastek. Dual U.S.-Gavastekan Allies are expected to choose the side of most economic activity, which is found to be roughly equal with numbers and value of countries. Neutral nations in this economic situation are expected to not pick sides, and refuse the place economic restrictions on either of the party nations/allies.
203.4. Expulsion of Gavastekan Diplomats: Strong U.S. Allies are expected to possibly recall all diplomats, cease diplomatic cooperation and communication, and expel Gavastekan diplomats. Semi-strong to weak U.S. allies, including alliances of convenience, are expected to be less that likely to expel Gavastekan diplomats and recall their own, even under possible threats by U.S. or U.S.-Allied nations. Neutral nations are expected to completely avoid any diplomatic sanctions against any of the party nations, and Gavastekan allies and U.S. enemies (who hold diplomatic relations with Gavastek) are expected to completely maintain all diplomatic relations fully.
203.5. Global Market Influence: Global Markets are expected to destabilise following U.S. and U.S. Ally sanctions, however, restabilise for Gavastekan, Gavastekan Ally, and Neutral Nation markets shortly afterward, with 3 to 5 business days.
203.6. Global Treaty and Policy Decision Updates
203.6.1. Mutual Participation in Treaties
203.6.1.1. Diplomatic and War Allowances: The United States of America is allowed to contact The Socialist Republic only in times of war to negotiate/broker a peace agreement, or to negotiate the ceasing of the Excommunicado, should all requirements be met. All current war requirement and allowances set by international treaties shall also be honoured.
203.6.1.2. Humanitarian Rights: All treaties regarding humanitarian efforts, work, accomplishments, rights, and abilities are to continue to be honoured regardless dual participation status of the U.S. and Gavastek.
203.6.2. Derecognition of “Force-Fed” Treaties: Multiple treaties dually signed by both Gavastek and the U.S. have been determined by the Ministry of Foreign Relations to be considered “force-fed” in the meaning that Gavastek likely would not have signed such treaties, had U.S. strength not been shown/demonstrated. Such treaties are to be listed under Gavastekan code §103.42.03.05 listing all current and active treaties observed by Gavastek, along with Gavastekan code §903.43.13.04, listing all treaties no longer in affect or power, among which such treaties will be transferred to and found.
