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Fallout of Brexit


Ogaden
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I can see the following occuring:

 

* Scotland and Northern Ireland will leave the UK, which will become England again.

* UK financial slump for about a decade as most European firms move elsewhere

* Implosion of the Tories and rise of UKIP, split on the right leads to Labour government

* End of EU migration cooperation will lead to vast increase in refugee and African migrant movement into the UK.  France will no longer see any reason to force migrants to stay in Calais and will help them continue on to England.  Greece will finally be able to let all the migrants they're holding continue on to Londonistan.

* Decline in the financial sector will put enormous pressure on the UK budget, crisis will hit by 2018

* Europe, finally free of English whining, will form a Federal Europe and rise to great power status

Edited by Ogaden
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* They can't leave if not given a vote to start with. Sinn Fein will botch it and start killing support for it in Northern Ireland anyway I'm sure.

* Perhaps, perhaps not. 

* UKIP has hurt Labour more than the Tories. Why would that change exactly especially with the Red Tories planning to knife Comrade Corbyn in the back?

* ??? They'll take a hardline stance on it and get/keep them out. Marie Le Pen would sort the matter nicely anyway.

* Perhaps, perhaps not. 

 

2/5 are possible though too many variables involved especially as the EU itself can collapse before those timeframes you mention conclude. 3/5 are as far as I can see completely incorrect. 

 

Edit: Now seeing your edit. No luv, no.

Edited by Rozalia
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I can see the following occuring:

 

* Scotland and Northern Ireland will leave the UK, which will become England again.

* UK financial slump for about a decade as most European firms move elsewhere

* Implosion of the Tories and rise of UKIP, split on the right leads to Labour government

* End of EU migration cooperation will lead to vast increase in refugee and African migrant movement into the UK.  France will no longer see any reason to force migrants to stay in Calais and will help them continue on to England.  Greece will finally be able to let all the migrants they're holding continue on to Londonistan.

* Decline in the financial sector will put enormous pressure on the UK budget, crisis will hit by 2018

* Europe, finally free of English whining, will form a Federal Europe and rise to great power status

 

*I don't know enough about Northern Ireland but I agree that there's a distinct possibility Scotland will leave the UK and maybe even join the EU.

*It's possible that they'll experience a slump but their economy isn't entirely destitute, depends on what happens.

*No clue what the next British government will be but do I imagine the decline of the Tories is likely.

*It's possible that EU migration cooperation might change or simply end but they are the British isles after all and they certainly have measures they can put in place to combat increased immigration.

*The financial sector is a large part of the British economy so if it continues to decline I can definitely see some sort of crisis happening, too soon to know for sure.

*Either you're right and Europe becomes stronger as a result of this or it crumbles. Or maybe it just stays the same, who knows.

orwell_s_1984_oceania_s_currency_by_dungsc127_d97k1zt-fullview.jpg.9994c8f495b96849443aa0defa8730be.jpg

 

 

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Won't let me quote #1 today but...

 

- Under Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland WILL leave the UK - that's how we all feel at the moment. NI not so much, but they will want devolution.

- There will be a very very small slump because the remaining sane people in government (well the more centreist tories) will negotiate a "Swiss" or "Norwegian" (EEA) deal, so we would have access to the single market.

- The SNP or Labour could still BLOCK the result in parliament, but it would be political suicide for Labour.

- UKIP will lose their share, Labour won't get in because they're an internal shambles under Corbyn (the left will split to the Greens who got around 10% at the election, UKIP got 12%)

- True

- I'd say 2021/2022 if the Tories get in AGAIN.

- Churchill put it best - United States of Europe.

 

AND ALSO easyJet and Ryanair will collapse.

Edited by Matt2004

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I can see the following

 

*Absolute panic for a week

*Nothing

 

Stop getting your panties in a twist

This is probably closer to the truth in the short run. In the medium term the most likely outcome is that eventually there will be another financial downturn globally and in Europe. The Mediterranean States will again seek a losening of financial constraintsand the Germanic States will oppose this. In the past Britain has acted as a break on these two sides clashing. Having been removed from the EU structure the fissures will deepen and eventually lead to a split between the two European blocks of some form or another with major changes for the Euro Zone and EU. Although this likely chain of events was not impossible without Britain, without her influence it becomes more likely.

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Scotland leaving the union is inevitable now, the moment the economy goes into anything remotely resembling a recession as a result of this decision and scots start losing their jobs will be the moment SNP is waiting for to start banging the referendum drum. Can imagine it already, "blame the English for so and so" and in this situation it will be entirely accurate.

 

Loved the part where the English minister for Northern Ireland I believe got on the news and said Northern Ireland and Scotland ,who voted to stay in the EU in higher percentages than the English who voted to leave, would not be allowed referendums on their next steps as the decision has been made for them by England.

 

What is this, 1700?

Edited by Charles the Tyrant
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Well considering one of the carrots in the Scottish referendum was continued membership of the EU, you can't really blame them if they feel sold down the river. Personally I will support a second referendum. I didn't support the first one, this time I see it in Scotland's best interests to leave. Spain has offered Gibraltar joint sovereignty and I think that will be another interesting debate to follow.

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Still a man hears what he wants to hear
And disregards the rest

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Scotland leaving the union is inevitable now, the moment the economy goes into anything remotely resembling a recession as a result of this decision and scots start losing their jobs will be the moment SNP is waiting for to start banging the referendum drum. Can imagine it already, "blame the English for so and so" and in this situation it will be entirely accurate.

 

Loved the part where the English minister for Northern Ireland I believe got on the news and said Northern Ireland and Scotland ,who voted to stay in the EU in higher percentages than the English who voted to leave, would not be allowed referendums on their next steps as the decision has been made for them by England.

 

What is this, 1700?

 

Quite right, we need to move forward past such things. Time to do away with the union and establish a one fully united nation so this nonsense from the Scots can die down.

 

Well considering one of the carrots in the Scottish referendum was continued membership of the EU, you can't really blame them if they feel sold down the river. Personally I will support a second referendum. I didn't support the first one, this time I see it in Scotland's best interests to leave. Spain has offered Gibraltar joint sovereignty and I think that will be another interesting debate to follow.

 

Who sold them down that river? Cameron. It certainly wasn't Farage. Just another contradiction for the Scottish Nationalists.

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In the medium term the most likely outcome is that eventually there will be another financial downturn globally and in Europe. 

Damn, just as the last ammo scare was sort of ending for .308. Now we'll have all the tin foils saying this one will be the collapse of society and send prices through the roof again.  :angry:

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Quite right, we need to move forward past such things. Time to do away with the union and establish a one fully united nation so this nonsense from the Scots can die down.

 

Who sold them down that river? Cameron. It certainly wasn't Farage. Just another contradiction for the Scottish Nationalists.

I do love the arrogance granted by idealism and a complete disdain for reality. Edited by Charles the Tyrant
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Damn, just as the last ammo scare was sort of ending for .308. Now we'll have all the tin foils saying this one will be the collapse of society and send prices through the roof again. :angry:

How did you get to your reply from my analysis?

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DEATH TO EU

(as an institution, of course,not the people)

Edited by Milord
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PEOPLE BE CAREFUL WHERE YOU POST CAUSE IF YOU POST IN A NO COMMENT THREAD, YOU GET A WARNING POINT

CAUSE OTHER PEOPLE SEING ONE MORE POST THAN USUAL HURTS THEIR EYES.

You gotta live long so you can experience the sad joke that this world is.

"If I ever formed an alliance it would be called Grand Puberty Agency

And the text above would be like:"GPA just had a growth spurt"

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"financial downturn globally"

Ammo prices went through the roof in 2008.

Ahhh, well ok. I guess you can start hoarding. But I am not talking about the short term, rather sometime in the next 25 years or so.

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